IF IT SOUNDS LIKE A DUCK (THE FULL PRESENTENTATION)

The early part of 2010 were heady days for Nigeria's democracy. The President, Mr.Umaru Musa YarAdua was obviously not in the mental state to run to the toilet, not to talk of running a country.

His deputy, then known simply as Dr.Goodluck Jonathan, before other names were manufactured for political reasons, was a dour, colourless and uncharismatic man, who was known more as the husband of a woman that was declared wanted by EFCC for money laundering than for any ground breaking achievement as a governor in Bayelsa state.
A group of political desperados, mostly from katsina, but with membership drawn from all over the country, under the fanciful name of the Cabal, sized up the VP and realized he was a spineless fellow, took over power in the name of a brain dead president.
The people did not find this funny, and under the leadership of sundry groups like SNG, took to the streets to protest the usurpation, and urging the National Assembly to declare YarAdua unfit and to make Jonathan Acting President.
After unrelenting pressure he was made Acting President, and on May 5, YarAdua thankfully took his bow and Jonathan got the top job.
There were early signs that the man was not intellectually and mentally equipped for the job, but we didn't care. After all, a man born in a non descript fishing village who had no shoes rising to the top job is the stuff legends are made of. The fact that he is ijaw,an oil producing minority tribe and a PhD holder with no ties to our tainted military past sealed the deal.
After all, if it sounds like a duck, swim like a duck, then it must be a duck, right?
Wrong.
The 2011 elections were fought on many fronts. For the North, it was an opportunity to reclaim what they considered to be their turn to hold the knife that cut the National Cake.To the South South, it was once in a lifetime opportunity to determine how the cake being baked in their backyard was to be shared.
For most people in the South, the act of trying to prevent Jonathan from becoming acting President was seen as a slap on their collective faces, and the arrogance and the condescension of most northern politicians revived the age old suspicion that they (the North ), are born to rule.
Unfortunately, the face of the North was Mr.Muhamadu Buhari, a former military dictator who, for twenty months, rode roughshod over people's rights under the guise of instilling discipline, enacting retroactive laws and overriding judgements made by his own tribunals, example of the late Pa Adekule Ajasin and Professor Ambrose Ali readily came to mind.
He was also perceived as a rabid pro fulani and Islamic fundermentalist. While of that of religious bigotry is debatable, his visit to the late Lam Adesshina, the then governor of Oyo state, along with Buba Marwa to protest the killing of Boros (fulani herdsmen) in Shaki, which led to a thorough tongue lashing from the no nonsense Lam, confirmed beyond doubt, his ethnic bias.
The profile of Jonathan's main opponent, the promise to serve one term, and the novelty of seeing the North in an unfamiliar position of being in opposition to a central government, gave Mr. Jonathan a landslide victory taking all states in the south except one,and enough in the North to meet the constitutional requirements to be declared winner.
On October 1 2011 when he was sworn in for a full term, the entire nation was united in wishing our second graduate, and first PhD holder president, a shipload of goodwill to succeed.
So, how come this large dose of goodwill was frittered away under four years?, how come the transformational president became a vindictive, clueless and incompetent president under forty eight months?
What was it that makes Buhari, who had perception issues four years ago, now the poster child of change?
What manner of man would alienate majority of the people who stood by him less than three hundred weeks ago?On the first day of 2012,barely three months after being sworn in for a full term, Mr.Jonathan gave Nigerians an unpalatable New Year present in the form of removal of fuel subsidy.
For Nigerians, especially those who fought , and then voted for Jonathan as the harbinger of change, this was an early sign that this president would be no different , or even worse, than his predecessors.
This action, seen by many not only as a betrayal of their trust, but coming from a man who was deputy to YarAdua, who actually reduced pump price, was really baffling.
They promptly took to the streets, and in what would become a pattern, first he ignored it, then he blamed it on the opposition, then the Lagos media, before unleashing his attack dogs on the protesters, the same people that marched to ensure his rise to power.
The same template was deployed for Boko Haram, the Chibog girls, oduahgate,dezianigate, natural or man made disasters, and others too numerous to mention.
Every time Nigeria needs leadership, Mr.Jonathan has been found wanting. He routinely set up committees to look at reports of committees he had earlier set up to look at the report of another committee, He lacks empathy, he enjoys the perks of the office but appears docile and uninterested in doing the job he was elected to do; protect the people and the territorial integrity of the country, as his sole goal is to stay in power at whatever cost.
Our projected growth has been reviewed from 20 percent to five percent by the IMF, our debt profile , according to the DMO, is over forty billion dollars. Our touted biggest economy in Africa lost 35Billion Naira from disinvestment by DFIs in just one month, and the Naira is now 200 to the dollar.
Our transformed airports have just been rated the worst in Africa, and we remain the only oil exporting/importing country where the pump price has not dropped.
Let us agree, using all known parameters that Mr.Jonathan has failed, but is Mr.Buhari,given his antecedents, and well documented record of human rights abuses the logical alternative?Now, let us examine the dilemma of choosing between two candidates with such divisive and sometimes contradictory public personae.
The Jonathan camp bombard us daily about what they considered the unparalleled achievement of their principal, especially the claim that he is refurbishing decaying infrastructure, and growing the economy to become the biggest in Africa.
His critics point to unchecked corruption, total failure to provide security, a cynical and unfeeling approach to governance, a deliberate use of ethnicity and religion as political tools, and his well documented inability, some call it fear, to rein in most of his ministers, especially the very powerful female ones, and of course, his wife.
The Buhari camp, on the other hand, stated that the country is adrift, polarized and dangerously on the brink,primarily due to Jonathan's incompetence and corrupt practices, which has risen to the level of state policy, and that Buhari's famed anti corruption and no nonsense credentials are what is needed right now to save the sinking ship.
His detractors point out his record of moral inconsistencies in the fight against corruption and his fixation on religion and ethnicity.
Now, the choice is yours.
As a Perception Management Consultant and Media Researcher and Strategist, I can tell you for a fact that ethnicity, religion and source of livelihood would play a major role in this election, but would not be the deciding factor.
The deciding factor would be the decision of those in the middle of the two extremes; wether to continue the status quo with an uncertain future, or vote for change in personnel and hopefully, a change in direction.
I know some of you here are uncomfortable with the two choices on display, while some have decided on anyone else BUT Jonathan, but are still petrified with the choice of another ex soldier tapping into our genuine desire for change to return to power,let me just put in my own ten kobo.
In Ibadan, we have one or two sayings that may help you out.
The first one is, if a young man stumbles, he looks forward, when an elder stumbles he looks back.
I am sure none of you here is less than twenty one.
Another one is; if you worship a deity for seven years and instead of your situation improving, things are getting worse, go back to your old deity, or get a new one.
Mr.Jonathan has been in power for about six years, and I understand he had been in the corridors of power for a much longer period, if there was a man primed for leadership, it was the shoeless boy from Otuoke.
But if you spent twenty years rehearsing for lunacy, how long would you actually have to be a certified lunatic?
Methinks we have seen the best Mr.Jonathan could offer, four more years would only make matters worse.
But, is Buhari the best agent of change we could get?, probably not, but if your young dog could not hunt to save its own life, is it not better to sell it and buy a dog known to be a proven hunter, although it has an history of occasionally biting the owner?
I know it is an Hobson's choice, but which other choices are there?
But do not take my word for it, after all, in Ibadan we would say and I quote "when it faces you, shoot, if it turns its back to you, shoot, but when you're alone, evaluate your options"
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is my ten kobo
Thank you for listening.
(Concluded)
Gani Kayode Balogun Jr, BA,PGD,MA,MBA , is an award winning essayist, writer, poet and author.
He is also an accomplished Media Marketing Practitioner, Researcher and Strategist and a highly regarded Perception Management Consultant and Resource Person.