The
firestorm generated by Chukwuma Soludo’s well reasoned commentary on the place
of issues in the 2015 electioneering campaign has somehow become the core of
the campaign. What a way to come from outside and define agenda.
Of course
I do not agree with all the points marshaled by the erstwhile CBN Governor and
Patito’s Gang member, but not to commend his citizen duty of engagement or
indicate as reprehensible the resort to ad hominen bashing of the former
Economic Adviser instead of providing Facts to counter the views he had
raised.
That is
issues based campaign. I will myself raise logic to support and dispute some of
the points in the Soludo intervention.
I do
agree with Soludo that issues matter. I also think that those who turn to
divisive emotion-laden typecasting of others rather than issues pertaining to
the well being of the Nigerian people do a grave disservice not only to
democracy but to the long term common Good of all.
The
Soludo thrust of criticism sounds like an attack on the statist perspective
that intervention can generate jobs and economic growth. Even as one who likes
to see government out of the way, I find the approach worrying because beyond
the Keynesian logic that brought the ultimate capitalist state, the US, out of
the Great Depression with initiatives like the Tennessee Valley Authority in
Infrastructure, there is more recent example of post 2008 global financial
crisis and the stimulus packages of the Obama Administration, and now Europe
turning to Quantitative Easing, not to knock the wall street / Main street tag
team approach to ensuring prosperity. Soludo’s solutions sometimes sounded like
Deepak Lal on the poverty of Development Economics. I think that if we see
current oil price slum as an opportunity rather than a threat then we have to
see a role for government in the way Lee Kuan Yew used state intervention when
Singapore was prostrate in 1965, as Nigeria is today.
This
leads to another point I am not in agreement with Soludo on. He talks about
cost of programmes and the fact that low oil prices mean you cannot finance a
big idea. In 1965 Singapore’s main revenues came from rent for the British
Naval Base and the British had decided to shut all bases east of Eden. The
decision of leaders of the United Malay, National Organisational (UMNO) to
eject Singapore from the Federation that was thought to be the only hope left.
Singapore, out of pocket, and all dressed up with nowhere to go. Then they
rolled up their sleeves, got creative, transmitted the right values and found
leadership that inspired and had integrity. Today the small country probably
has the largest concentration of billionaires per capital on earth.
Here in
Nigeria, shortly after self government, in the 1950’s, Nnamdi Azikiwe as
Premier of Eastern Region was anxious to match the free education policy of
Chief Obafemi Awolowo. Palm Produce did not fetch as much as Cocoa in the
Market. The civil servants led by the new Permanent Secretary in Finance, Chief
Jerome Udoji thought it could not be done because of limitations of money. Zik
insisted and accused Udoji, in Parliament, of trying to sabotage his
government. After 40 percent of the Eastern Nigeria budget of 1957 had gone to
education and was still inadequate, the Ugoji team suggested the introduction
of fees for Primary 1 and Primary 5. But leadership kicked in. A philosophy
called “Ibu anyi danda” raised a formula that created a partnership between
government, the communities and missionaries that enabled the East leapfrog the
gap in education between the East and West.
In both
cases the difference was leadership. At the centre in Abuja for some reason
that may be from exposure, or whatever, does not inspire as Lee Kuan Yew,
Nnamdi Azikiwe and Michael Okpara did. Money is not everything in making dreams
come through.
Among the
many lessons we will learn, if we begin to operationalize the cash transfers
initiative of APC, a concept that helped Inatio Da Silva pull Brazil out of
‘potential’ into a global economic powerhouse, is that we may not need as much
cash as Soludo projects and that corruption and goal displacement is so high in
a bloated public service that the savings will more than be adequate. Besides
from Kayode Fayemi and Rauf Aregbesola we learn that with such programmes in
Ekiti and Osun that the numbers projected are often exaggerated. Given our
abuse of census we are likely to find much fewer people in those brackets.
Check with the Bill Gates Foundation on satellite imagery studies of target
population groups.
Having
stated my major point of disagreement, it is useful to reflect on some other
points raised by Soludo.
His
broadside on austerity measures pronouncement and the road to austerity is a
true, fair and proper read. No question that we walked with our eyes open into
a repeat of 1982. In many of my speeches and my 2006 book WHY NATIONS Are Poor,
I recall how the Iranian revolution pushed oil prices into the stratosphere of
USD 40 a barrel. We went reckless with champagne and even importing sand and
big men bought Rolls Royces. We managed to borrow ourselves into a dept trap.
On this round we moved up private jets and buying up Dubai.
When this
current boom started with India Rising and China producing I recall on several
occasions calling for fiscal responsibility compact in which flows into the
distributable pool, the FAC account, not go above $40 a barrel, with additional
revenues up to $70 a barrel price going to a stabilization fund. This fund
would be available were prices to drop below $40 to be used to ensure a
constant budget funding up $40 in lean times. Beyond $70 it should flow into a
future fund. I have been singing this song for several years but the
technocrats say the politicians insist on sharing the whole money and say of
talk about saving for a rainy day that it is pointless planning for the rain
when it was already pouring torrents. My retort was what is so wrong in
resigning to make a point and force public conversation to educate the people
because these politicians may be greedy but they surely do not hate their
children. They have only acted in ignorance. I point them to young Mahathir
Mohammed in Malaysia who disagreed with the position of the then Prime Minister
and spoke up. He was dropped from the government where he was a junior
minister, and expelled from The United Malay National Organization (UMNO) the
dominant party at that time. Out of government he wrote a book: The Malay
Dilemma. That triggered soul searching that finished with the resignation of
the Prime Minister. He was brought back into the Party. Not long after Dr
Mahathir Ibn Mohammed became Prime Minister and the history of Malaysia changed
for good.
What does
it take to lead such change- Genius? No. I draw from the Ronald Reagan
experience in the US. President Reagan was not a genius. Some think he probably
already had Alzheimer disease when he entered the White house. But his values
were clear as was his vision. He found the right people and an America, in
retreat, was revitalized, opening the way for teen and twenty American young
stars to create a new industry with the .com revolution. Ironically, I have
said elsewhere that the Buhari movement somehow reminds me of the coming of
Ronald Reagan.
Let me
close with a caveat. My response is a citizen response. My prism on this is not
partisan. But I am a card carrying member of the APC. The emergence of the APC
is a culmination of my life’s quest as an institutionalist to see the dynamic
of two balanced political parties. I was sure that without competition between
parties that are equals progress would continue to elude Nigeria So I longed
for and worked for the scenario we have today. But I see in the torrent of
abuse on Chukwumah Soludo for speaking truth to power and worry this thing we
have worked hard for, not in any pursuit of any self interest, but for the
advance of the common good, could be threatened by those who fail to understand
the very idea of the public squares and the triumph of the ideas rather than
emotional outbursts that result in tension and violence.
I have
read unprintable things on line and in so many e-groups, some more offensive
than Charlie Hebdo cartoons from both sides. This is poison we must curb. It is
a double blow when those who follow this track are well educated. So let us
leave this business of certificates and uncompleted PHDs and hateful portrayals
of opponents in caricature from the cross to throw backs of earlier life of candidates
that seem like Hitler’s Goebbels at work let’s examine vision of society of
challenges and the record of incumbents. Lets ask people, regarding incumbents,
is your life better today than it was four years ago and to the challengers how
can you make these same lives much better four years from now. To win elections
from intimidation, a shower of insults and trying to diminish opponents rather
than engage their minds can only produce pyrrhic victory.
The worst
such “victory” would be to win an election and lose a nation through bitterness
that makes it difficult to get people to work together to advance the shared
good of the people. For people like me the public sphere is about the pursuit
of the elevated immortality. This comes when you do what is right and if
providence beckons, as it did for Mahathir Mohammed, lee Kuan Yew and Ronald
Reagan then you live a name that time cannot find an eraser to rub off. Those
who negate the opportunity for progress to blossom and the triumph of the human
spirit to bring progress deserved die a thousand times while they still inhale
and exhale no matter the title they get for their place is in infamy.
PU
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